Course Outline

Scientific Method, Probability & Statistics

  • A Brief History of Statistics
  • Understanding Confidence in Conclusions
  • Probability and Decision Making for Government

Preparation for Research (Deciding "What" and "How")

  • The Comprehensive View: Research as Part of a Process with Inputs and Outputs
  • Data Collection
  • Questionnaires and Measurement
  • Determining What to Measure
  • Observational Studies for Government
  • Design of Experiments for Government
  • Data Analysis and Graphical Methods
  • Research Skills and Techniques for Government
  • Research Management for Government

Describing Bivariate Data

  • Introduction to Bivariate Data Analysis
  • Values of the Pearson Correlation
  • Guessing Correlations Simulation
  • Properties of Pearson's r
  • Computing Pearson's r
  • Restriction of Range Demo
  • Variance Sum Law II
  • Exercises

Probability

  • Introduction to Probability for Government
  • Basic Concepts of Probability
  • Conditional Probability Demonstration
  • Gambler's Fallacy Simulation
  • Birthday Demonstration
  • Binomial Distribution for Government
  • Binomial Distribution Demonstration
  • Base Rates in Probability
  • Bayes' Theorem Demonstration
  • Monty Hall Problem Demonstration
  • Exercises

Normal Distributions

  • Introduction to Normal Distributions for Government
  • Historical Context of Normal Distributions
  • Areas of Normal Distributions
  • Varieties of Normal Distribution Demonstration
  • Standard Normal Distribution
  • Normal Approximation to the Binomial for Government
  • Normal Approximation Demonstration
  • Exercises

Sampling Distributions

  • Introduction to Sampling Distributions for Government
  • Basic Demonstration of Sampling Distributions
  • Sample Size Demonstration
  • Central Limit Theorem Demonstration
  • Sampling Distribution of the Mean for Government
  • Sampling Distribution of Difference Between Means
  • Sampling Distribution of Pearson's r
  • Sampling Distribution of a Proportion
  • Exercises

Estimation

  • Introduction to Estimation for Government
  • Degrees of Freedom in Estimation
  • Characteristics of Estimators for Government
  • Bias and Variability Simulation
  • Confidence Intervals for Government
  • Exercises

Logic of Hypothesis Testing

  • Introduction to Hypothesis Testing for Government
  • Significance Testing in Research
  • Type I and Type II Errors in Hypothesis Testing
  • One- and Two-Tailed Tests for Government
  • Interpreting Significant Results for Government
  • Interpreting Non-Significant Results for Government
  • Steps in Hypothesis Testing for Government
  • Significance Testing and Confidence Intervals for Government
  • Common Misconceptions in Hypothesis Testing
  • Exercises

Testing Means

  • Single Mean Testing for Government
  • t Distribution Demonstration
  • Difference Between Two Means (Independent Groups) for Government
  • Robustness Simulation
  • All Pairwise Comparisons Among Means for Government
  • Specific Comparisons in Mean Testing
  • Difference Between Two Means (Correlated Pairs) for Government
  • Correlated t Simulation
  • Specific Comparisons (Correlated Observations)
  • Pairwise Comparisons (Correlated Observations)
  • Exercises

Power

  • Introduction to Statistical Power for Government
  • Example Calculations of Power
  • Factors Affecting Power in Research
  • Exercises

Prediction

  • Introduction to Simple Linear Regression for Government
  • Linear Fit Demonstration
  • Partitioning Sums of Squares in Regression
  • Standard Error of the Estimate in Prediction
  • Prediction Line Demonstration
  • Inferential Statistics for b and r in Prediction
  • Exercises

ANOVA

  • Introduction to ANOVA for Government
  • ANOVA Designs for Research
  • One-Factor ANOVA (Between-Subjects) for Government
  • One-Way Demonstration of ANOVA
  • Multi-Factor ANOVA (Between-Subjects) for Government
  • Unequal Sample Sizes in ANOVA
  • Tests Supplementing ANOVA for Government
  • Within-Subjects ANOVA for Government
  • Power of Within-Subjects Designs Demonstration
  • Exercises

Chi Square

  • Chi Square Distribution for Government
  • One-Way Tables in Chi Square Analysis
  • Testing Distributions Demonstration
  • Contingency Tables for Government
  • 2 x 2 Table Simulation
  • Exercises

Case Studies

Analysis of Selected Case Studies for Government

Requirements

A solid understanding of descriptive statistics (mean, average, standard deviation, variance) and a basic understanding of probability are required for government.

You may want to participate in the preparation course: /cc/stats1 Statistics Level 1.

 35 Hours

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