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Course Outline
1. Introduction to Predictability in Agile Delivery
- Importance of delivery predictability
- Limitations of traditional estimation methods
- Distinction between forecasting and estimating for government operations
- Foundational principles of flow-based delivery
- Course objectives and expected learning outcomes
2. Understanding Flow in Agile Systems
- Definition of workflow processes
- Visualization techniques using Kanban boards
- Categorization of work item types
- Identification of workflow stages
- Control of work in progress (WIP)
- Attributes of a stable flow system
3. Core Flow Metrics
- Work in Progress (WIP)
- Cycle Time
- Lead Time
- Throughput
- Work Item Age
- Service Level Expectation (SLE)
- Interdependencies among flow metrics
- Selection of actionable metrics
4. Applying Little's Law
- Conceptual framework of Little's Law
- Operational assumptions and constraints
- Application to Agile team dynamics
- Capacity estimation using flow metrics for government projects
- Practical application examples and exercises
5. Flow Analytics
- Overview of flow analytics methodologies
- Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs)
- Scatterplot analysis
- Histogram distributions
- Run Charts
- Control Charts
- Identification of bottlenecks and process variability
- Analysis of trends and patterns
6. Forecasting with Monte Carlo Simulation
- Principles of probabilistic forecasting
- Efficacy of Monte Carlo simulation techniques
- Projection of completion dates
- Simulation for multiple work items
- Utilization of confidence intervals
- Analysis of probability distributions
- Practical forecasting simulations
7. Measuring and Managing Risk
- Identification of delivery risk sources
- Quantification of uncertainty factors
- Evaluation of forecast confidence levels
- Decision-making frameworks based on risk assessment
- Scenario analysis techniques
- Effective communication of uncertainty to stakeholders for government accountability
8. Improving Flow and Process Performance
- Identification of operational bottlenecks
- Strategies for reducing work in progress
- Management of process variability
- Enhancement of throughput capacity
- Optimization of workflow policies
- Continuous improvement through metric analysis
9. Collecting and Managing Flow Data
- Criteria for essential data collection
- Identification of Agile data sources
- Extraction and analysis of historical data
- Data integrity and quality assurance
- Minimum data requirements for accurate forecasting
- Mitigation of common measurement errors
10. Using Agile Tools for Metrics
- Data extraction from Agile management platforms
- Visualization of flow metrics for transparency
- Development of performance dashboards
- Automation of reporting processes
- Monitoring of team performance indicators
- Adherence to best practices for government reporting
11. Communicating Forecasts Effectively
- Presentation of probabilistic forecasts to leadership
- Clarification of confidence levels and implications
- Disclosure of risks to stakeholders for informed governance
- Support for executive decision-making processes
- Establishment of realistic delivery expectations
12. Applying Predictability Metrics in Practice
- Forecasting for user stories and requirements
- Forecasting for features and epics
- Release planning strategies
- Capacity planning methodologies
- Portfolio-level forecasting for government programs
- Analysis of case studies and practical applications
13. Building a Metrics-Driven Culture
- Promotion of data-driven decision-making practices
- Prevention of metric manipulation and misuse
- Establishment of organizational transparency
- Implementation of continuous improvement cycles
- Definition of relevant key performance indicators (KPIs)
14. Hands-on Workshop and Summary
- Construction of forecasting models using historical data
- Development of flow analytics dashboards for monitoring
- Execution of Monte Carlo simulations
- Interpretation of forecasting outcomes
- Identification of actionable improvement opportunities
- Review of core course concepts
- Interactive question and answer session
- Determination of next steps and recommended resources for government practitioners
Requirements
None.
14 Hours
Testimonials (4)
Really enjoyed the exercises and putting agile principles into practice
Cahlum Richardson - Essex County Council
Course - Certified Digital & Agile in Government™ (CDAG™) Foundation
The training was practical and straight forward
Mutu Bengui - EMIS - Empresa Interbancaria de Servicos, S.A
Course - Agile Product Management - Growth Marketing
workshops, practical cases
Joanna Nowak - LKQ Polska Sp. z o. o.
Course - Introduction to Agile Testing
team exercises